Apr 12, 2020

Something about the corona virus statistics doesn't add up in the Indian context

I've been tracking this corona map of India since last few days and there is one thing that I really cannot understand. Corona started getting the limelight since January but there were hardly any cases in India back then, only one or two cases were found in Kerala if I recall correctly.



Then came February. Again, a few more cases and lots of news reports but nothing to panic about. Let's recall that flights across China and Europe were still running in this period and (in retrospect) we can assume that many "corona carriers" may have entered India in this month too. Let's also take into consideration that 14 days is the max gestation period within which corona should start showing symptoms in those affected. This hypothesis is very important in consideration of what happens during the next two months.

Now as March enters, govt. and the people started getting serious about corona. Still not in panic mode though, just discussions about what's happening in China and do we have enough resources if such a situation were to happen here. Also consider for a moment that if we assume the 14 day hypothesis to be true then those "carriers" who entered India in the previous month (and also those around them who they may have unwittingly infected) must have been crawling and dying with corona disease by now, especially with no lockdown in effect - yet strangely they didn't! Considering the size and population density of our country, this number should've been at least in lacs if not crores, but no such thing happened which is a great mystery!

March 20th is perhaps when everyone gets panicky after looking at Italy and Spain situation. March 23rd is when our PM announces a nationwide lockdown. Let's assume another dumb and common sense hypotheses now that the disease won't spread as rapidly in a lockdown as without it. Its quite obvious now that the vast majority of our people are sincerely obeying the PM's lockdown resolve and have locked themselves in their houses. Now, combining the lockdown hypotheses and the 14-day hypothesis, one thing is crystal clear: If anything, the number of those afflicted should've come down since 23rd or it should've remained same, but it should never have increased in such dramatic proportions!

As we entered April, corona cases chart of India was comparable to the BSE stock market chart in the middle of a bull market! By 1st April, the number of cases had soared up to 1998. Right now, the total number of cases is 8446 and this doesn't make sense at all. It throws the 14-day hypothesis right out of the window because if such dramatic increase in corona spread was possible, then why didn't it happen in Jan, Feb or even early March? Its quite apparent that hundreds of visitors did come to our country back then who were supposedly carrying the corona virus. This makes me reach the conclusion that one of the below conditions has to be true:

1. These statistics are vastly exaggerated.

2. The 14-day hypothesis is wrong, the virus is everywhere and can become active whenever it wants (but incidentally decided to become active in late March all of a sudden across the world!).

3. Something else (mysterious) is going on here.

No comments:

Post a Comment