As any stock market veteran will tell you, the stock market activity always anticipates the real economic events in advance and will rise or fall accordingly.
On one hand, we have talk about economic slowdown, lower GDP of 5%, increasing unemployment, etc. But on the other hand, NIFTY, the economic barometer of our country is only rising and rising. Today it closed at 11,890 and there is a good possibility of breaking the 12K barrier (which represents the all-time high) on the upper side in the next few trading sessions, if you see the technical chart:
Now both these things happening is inconsistent, both stock market rising and real economy falling can't continue in the long term, its basically an impossibility because the markets reflect the growth and revenues of the companies which form the Indian economy.
In the near term, either NIFTY will fall drastically to reflect the slowdown in the real economy or people will "suddenly" realize that all the talks of slowdown were actually wrong and development is actually happening! So, which one is it going to be? Please comment and let me know.
2 comments:
It will reflect the slowdown in economy
- because it is not supported by earnings.
- growth triggers and catalysts are missing.
Right now it just reflects the sheer scale of the economy.
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